An economic analysis warns of the major challenges facing Tunisia in 2026: war in Iran, a US trade war and an economic slowdown in Europe threaten to reduce growth to just 1%. [Source: L'Economiste Maghrébin]

According to a report by the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE) published in spring 2026, Tunisia is facing a triple shock that threatens to reduce its growth to just 1% in 2026. Following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which had shaken the energy and grain markets, Donald Trump’s return to the White House in November 2024, with his erratic tariff policy, had added to trade uncertainty. The war in Iran, which broke out in late February 2026, dealt a blow to a global system already under strain. Three factors explain this contraction: soaring oil and grain prices, which are weighing on public finances; disruptions to shipping routes, which are driving up logistics costs; and the European slowdown, which is penalising Tunisian exporters. The IACE recommends a strategy of diversifying trade and political partnerships.